Harrison EDEH
NIGERIA’s ₦68.32 trillion 2026 budget is facing a familiar implementation challenge as persistent revenue shortfalls, heavy debt-servicing obligations and delayed capital releases continue to undermine the Federal Government’s ability to turn approved spending into actual projects.
A check by the Advocate Times reveals a pattern in budget implementation reports since 2023 President Bola Tinubu came into office.
A review of Budget Implementation Reports since 2023 show repeated capital delays, overlapping budget cycles and mounting debt-service obligations, leaving limited cash for development projects.
This then raises a critical question for the 2026 budget. That is, whether the government can realistically execute a spending plan that has expanded sharply while the same constraints that weakened previous budgets remain.
The Federal government’s budget implementation reports show that capital execution has repeatedly been pushed forward.
The 2023 capital budget was extended into December 2024, while the 2024 capital budget was extended through December 2025.
The result has been a rolling backlog in which ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) are still executing previous appropriations while new budgets are being introduced.
The squeeze became particularly severe in 2025, as under the Federal government’s bottom-up cash-planning process, ministries had to conclude procurement before requesting releases.
Capital releases to MDAs fell to just ₦34.32 billion in the first quarter of 2025, against a prorated target of ₦4.63 trillion, representing a 99.26 per cent shortfall.
By the third quarter, releases were only ₦16.08 billion.
Debt service remains a concern, as indicated in the first quarter of 2025, which showed that the government paid ₦4.78 trillion to service its debt against retained revenue of ₦4.95 trillion.
More than 96 per cent of retained revenue was therefore absorbed by debt service before funds could be allocated to other priorities.
Debt burden threatens 2026 budget execution
This pattern is the central weakness confronting the 2026 budget, as a large appropriation does not automatically translate into a large amount of cash available for implementation.
BudgIT’s assessment of the 2026 budget reinforces the concern, explaining in one of its analyses that the Federal Government was planning expenditure of ₦58.47 trillion against projected revenue of ₦34.33 trillion, producing a ₦23.85 trillion deficit.
BudgIT stated that the resulting deficit-to-revenue ratio of about 70 per cent showed continued pressure to borrow.
The budget was subsequently expanded to ₦68.32 trillion in the approved 2026 Appropriation Act.
The approved budget provides ₦32.2 trillion for capital expenditure, ₦15.4 trillion for recurrent expenditure and ₦15.8 trillion for debt servicing.
Major allocations include ₦5.41 trillion for defence and security, ₦3.56 trillion for infrastructure, ₦3.52 trillion for education, ₦2.48 trillion for health and social services and ₦4.799 trillion for statutory transfers.
BudgIT has also questioned the growing use of capital supplementation, which rose from below ₦1 trillion to ₦5.1 trillion.
The organisation stated that some items classified as capital expenditure may have limited benefits beyond the current financial year and argued that the centralisation of such spending makes accountability and oversight more difficult.
For Eze Onyekpere, the Lead Partner for Centre for Social Justice (CSJ)and a fiscal governance expert, the problem goes beyond inadequate funding.,
He argues that the government must account for money that has already been appropriated and realised.
“If you have resources to do something by law, and you are not doing the thing, and there’s evidence of those resources, and there is no evidence that that money is being saved, you are simply mismanaging the resources,” Onyekpere said, while appearing on Silverbird TV recently.
He added, “That is my impression of what is happening. The money is being mismanaged.”
Onyekpere, a lawyer, also pointed to the legal obligation to prepare an annual cash plan and budget-disbursement schedule after approval and communicate implementation to Nigerians.
He argues that budget implementation is not simply a question of whether lawmakers approved the money, but whether the executive releases and accounts for it as required.
The 2026 budget therefore faces an execution test, not merely an appropriation test.
Its assumptions include oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day, an oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar.
The Advocate Times can report that, in recent times, crude oil prices have trended upward above the budgeted benchmark amid a shortfall in production output.
But if revenue again falls below projections, debt service and other mandatory obligations could further compress the cash available for capital projects.
BudgIT’s broader warning is that Nigeria needs fiscal realism, fewer fragmented projects, stronger revenue mobilisation and greater concentration of capital spending on priorities such as energy, food security, education, health and infrastructure.
